Distress Signals: Canada’s GDP Contraction in March 2020
In this edition of Graphic Intelligence, we examine the earliest available GDP numbers by industry amid the COVID-19 crisis. Overall, Canada’s GDP shrank by 7.2 percent relative to February 2020, with arts, entertainment and recreation most affected at -42.2 percent. Also severely affected were air transportation at -41.8 percent, food services and drinking places at […] Canada Entered Recession in First Quarter of 2020: C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council
May 1, 2020 – Preliminary data suggest Canada entered a recession in the first quarter of 2020 with a February peak, says the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council.
The Council, comprised of Canada’s preeminent economists in the field and co-chaired by Steve Ambler and Jeremy Kronick, is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The Council typically meets annually, but also when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuring government shutdown that put a stop to much economic activity, the Council met on April 16 to review the case for calling the beginning of a recession in the first quarter of 2020 and the dating of…
Dwight Duncan – Extraordinary Events Call For Extraordinary Responses
From: Dwight Duncan To: Canadian Ministers of Finance Date: March 18, 2020 Re: Extraordinary events call for extraordinary responses The government of Canada did exactly what it should have done last Friday by postponing its March 30 budget and outlining the first part of its large-scale response to COVID-19. Suddenly, governments are faced with something little anticipated just weeks […] Business Cycle Council Communique – December 2019
The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council met on December 11, 2019 to review its assessments of Canadian business cycle dates. The C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council, co-chaired by Steve Ambler and Jeremy Kronick, is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The Council meets on an annual basis, or as warranted when […]Inflation after the Crisis: What’s the Story?
Inflation went through a puzzling path after the financial crisis of 2008-09 and the reasons why warrant a closer look, according to a C.D. Howe Institute report. In “Inflation after the Crisis: What’s the Story?” authors Jeremy Kronick and Farah Omran explore a link between the breadth of economic growth and inflation performance over the […] Jeremy Kronick on BNN – Getting private equity involved to scale up Canadian companies
A new report from C.D. Howe says private equity is part of the solution for corporate Canada’s scaling problem. For more on this, BNN Bloomberg spoke with Jeremy Kronick, associate director of research at C.D. Howe Institute.
Hold The Panic: Maybe Canadians Aren’t Facing A Debt Insolvency Crisis After All – Financial Post Op-ed
For much of the last decade, Canadians have been told their debt levels were unsustainable and that their day of reckoning was fast approaching. Data recently released by the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy (OSB) seem to indicate that day has arrived. According to the data, insolvencies by Canadian consumers were up 9.2 per cent in October 2018, compared to a year earlier.
To say the least, these results appear alarming. But in light of what we know about homeownership and net worth, we are not so sure. The data show that Canadians’ net worth has never been higher. Moreover, the data do not distinguish between the more harmful economic effects from households in negative net asset positions, or balance sheet…
Business Cycle Council Communique – December 2018
The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council met on Tuesday December 11, 2018 to review its assessments of Canadian business cycle dates. The C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council, co-chaired by Steve Ambler and Jeremy Kronick, is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The Council meets on an annual basis, or as warranted […]Bank of Canada buys itself some breathing room on interest rates – Globe and Mail Op-Ed
Markets were not surprised by today’s Bank of Canada announcement to hike its overnight target rate by 25 basis points to 1.5 per cent. They had factored in a very high probability of an increase. And, consistent with a stated desire to improve its communications with both market participants and “the soccer dad,” it was a speech and a press conference that set the stage.
Governor Stephen Poloz’s speech on June 27 was an important factor in moving market expectations. By the end of the news conference that followed his speech, markets were confident of a hike. The theme of the speech was transparency and communications. By significantly shifting market expectations in the direction of a rate hike, the speech and news conference…
How Durable is the Current Economic Expansion?
The slumping stock market since mid-January, has prompted concerns that the expansion might be due to expire. In this edition of Graphic Intelligence, we look at the longest consistent indicators of economic activity – the amplitude and scope of real GDP growth, and changes in employment – and how that record allows some tentative judgments […] Robson, Kronick, Hui – The Durability of the Current Expansion
From: William B.P. Robson, Jeremy M. Kronick, and Nikki Hui To: Worried Canadian Stock Market Watchers Date: February 12, 2018 Re: The durability of the current expansion A slumping stock market – the S&P/TSX index was down 10 percent from its January high mid-Friday – has prompted concerns about the broader economy. People associate ups […]