Business Cycle Council Communique – December 2017
The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council met on Wednesday December 13 to review its assessments of Canadian business cycle dates.
The C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council, chaired by Steve Ambler, is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The Council meets on an annual basis, or as warranted when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession. The Council also acts as a conduit for research aimed at developing a deeper understanding of how the economy evolves and to provide guidance to policymakers.
The Council defines a recession as a pronounced, persistent, and pervasive decline in aggregate economic activity. In deciding on the occurrence and timing…
Revisions to Economic Statistics and Their Impact on Policymaking
Policymakers need not be the passive victims of revisions to the economic data they are scrutinizing, according to a report by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “Revisions to Economic Statistics and Their Impact on Policymaking,” Philip Cross, former Chief Economic Analyst at Statistics Canada, says policymakers can proactively take measures to anticipate revisions. Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.25 Percent by July 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
July 6, 2017 — In a tight vote, the C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.50 percent at its next announcement on July 12, 2017. The MPC called for the Bank to hike to 0.75 percent at the following announcement in September, with further hikes to 1.00 by January 2018 and 1.25 by July 2018.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and CEO, chairs the Council.
Council members make recommendations for the Bank of…
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.00 Percent by May 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
May 18, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) said the Bank of Canada should keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.50 percent at its next announcement on May 24, 2017. Looking ahead, the Council said the Bank should hold the target at 0.50 percent over the next six months, and hike to 1.00 percent by May of 2018.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and CEO, chairs the Council.
Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest-rate…
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent Next Week; Hike to 1.00 Percent by April 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
April 6, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.50 percent at its next announcement on April 12, 2017. Looking ahead, the Council said the Bank should raise the target to 0.75 percent over the next six months, and to 1.00 percent by April of 2018.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and CEO, chairs the Council.
Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s upcoming…
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent through September; Hike to 0.75 Percent by Early 2018, Says C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
February 23, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.50 percent at its next announcement on March 1, 2017. Looking ahead, the Council said the Bank should hold the target at 0.50 percent over the next six months, and raise it to 0.75 percent by March of 2018.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and CEO, chairs the Council.
Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s…
Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent through mid-Year; Hike to 0.75 Percent by 2018: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
January 12, 2017 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.50 percent at its next announcement on January 18, 2017. Looking ahead, the Council said the Bank should hold the target at 0.50 percent over the next six months, and raise it to 0.75 percent by January of 2018.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and CEO, chairs the Council.
Council members make recommendations for the Bank of Canada’s…
Evidence Mounts that 2015 Downturn was no Recession
Report of the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council
December 21, 2016 – It is not possible to call the first two quarters of 2015 a recession. This is the consensus view of the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council, which met on December 13, 2016.
The C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council, chaired by Steve Ambler, is an arbiter of business cycle dates in Canada. The Council meets on an annual basis, or as warranted when economic conditions indicate the possibility of entry to, or exit from, a recession. The Council also acts as a conduit for research aimed at deepening understanding of how the economy evolves and to provide relevant information to decision makers.
The Council reviewed…
What do the Different Measures of GDP Tell Us?
How one views GDP has important implications for policymaking, states a new working paper from the C.D. Howe Institute. In “What do the Different Measures of GDP Tell Us?”, author Phillip Cross examines how total GDP can be conceptualized, dissected and studied and how these improve our analysis and understanding of the sources of economic growth. Bank of Canada Should Hold Overnight Rate at 0.50 Percent for Next Year: C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council
December 1, 2016 — The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) today called for the Bank of Canada to keep its target for the overnight rate, the very short-term interest rate it targets for monetary policy purposes, at 0.50 percent at its next announcement on December 7, 2016. Looking ahead, the Council said the Bank should hold the target at 0.50 percent over the next six months, and narrowly voted for it to stay there until December of 2017.
The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target. William Robson, the Institute’s President and CEO, chairs the Council.
Council members make recommendations for the…
Live from the Annual Benefactors’ Lecture – Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada
Live fromthe Institute’s Annual Benefactors’ Lecture, watch Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, as he delivers his remarks on conducting monetary policy in turbulent times. Speech to commence at 8 pm, EST.
The Economic Lessons Of Donald Trump’s Victory – C.D. Howe Fellow
In the United States and around the world, millions of people are now asking “how could this happen?” How can we make sense of an America in which Donald Trump becomes the next president? Discovering the real answer to this question will be good for America—and for Canada, too.
Many people who are now angry and perplexed focus on Donald Trump, the man. They argue that he is the real problem America now faces—that he is not temperamentally capable of being president and that he cannot be trusted in the White House. Those skeptical of this view point out that Mr. Trump may surround himself with knowledgeable people and that the famous checks and balances in the U.S. system of government will prevent him from doing crazy things.…